Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
