A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
